Venture Debt - United States | Statista Market Forecast (2024)

Analyst Opinion

The Venture Debt market in United States has been experiencing significant growth in recent years.

Customer preferences:

One of the key reasons for the growth of the Venture Debt market in United States is the increasing preference of startups for alternative financing options. Startups are often in need of capital to fuel their growth and expansion plans, but traditional bank loans may not be easily accessible to them due to their limited operating history or lack of collateral. Venture Debt provides a viable alternative for startups to raise capital without diluting their equity. This has made Venture Debt an attractive option for startups, especially in the technology and biotech sectors, where there is a high demand for capital to fund research and development, hiring, and marketing activities.

Trends in the market:

The Venture Debt market in United States has also been driven by the increasing number of venture capital investments in startups. Venture capital firms are increasingly using debt as a complementary financing tool alongside equity investments. This trend has been particularly prevalent in the technology sector, where startups have been able to raise substantial amounts of equity financing from venture capital firms. By using Venture Debt, startups can leverage their equity capital and extend their runway, allowing them to achieve key milestones and increase their valuation before raising additional equity funding.

Local special circ*mstances:

The United States has a well-developed ecosystem for startups, with a large number of incubators, accelerators, and venture capital firms that actively support early-stage companies. This supportive ecosystem has created a conducive environment for the growth of the Venture Debt market. Startups in the United States have access to a wide range of debt providers, including banks, specialized debt funds, and venture debt firms. This competitive landscape has led to favorable terms and conditions for startups, including lower interest rates, flexible repayment schedules, and the ability to secure debt financing without providing personal guarantees or collateral.

Underlying macroeconomic factors:

The strong macroeconomic conditions in the United States have also contributed to the growth of the Venture Debt market. The country has experienced a prolonged period of economic expansion, with low interest rates and ample liquidity in the financial markets. These favorable conditions have made it easier for debt providers to raise capital and offer attractive terms to startups. Additionally, the United States has a deep and liquid capital market, which provides debt providers with access to a diverse investor base and enables them to raise capital at competitive rates. In conclusion, the Venture Debt market in United States has been growing rapidly due to the increasing preference of startups for alternative financing options, the growing trend of venture capital firms using debt as a complementary financing tool, the supportive ecosystem for startups, and the favorable macroeconomic conditions. These factors have created a conducive environment for startups to raise debt financing and fuel their growth and expansion plans.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Data encompasses B2B and B2C enterprises. Figures are based on the amount of capital raised, the average of deal size and the number of deals.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a combined top-down and bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use data from OECD, annual financial reports of key players, industry reports, third-party reports, publicly available databases, and survey results from primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, CPI, number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SME), new businesses registered (number) . This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing are well suited for forecasting digital products and services due to the non-linear growth of technology adoption.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war is considered at a country-specific level.

Venture Debt - United States | Statista Market Forecast (2024)

FAQs

Venture Debt - United States | Statista Market Forecast? ›

Total Capital Raised in the United States' Venture Debt market market is forecasted to reach US$31.9bn in 2024. Traditional Venture Debt leads the market with a projected volume of US$26.2bn in 2024. When compared globally, the United States is expected to generate the most Capital Raised ( US$31.9bn in 2024).

What is the market outlook for venture debt? ›

Traditional Venture Debt leads the market with a projected market volume of US$57.9bn in 2024.

What is the venture debt outlook for 2024? ›

After four straight years of $30+ billion in US venture debt activity, followed by a plunge in 2023 to an estimated US$12 billion, a partial bounce-back may be next (figure 1). In 2024, US tech venture debt could rise to US$14–16 billion, up 25% from 2023 levels.

How big is the venture debt market in the US? ›

In 2021, venture capital (“VC”) deal activity in the U.S. reached a record $344 billion, more than two times the previous record of $169 billion set in 2020*. The size of the venture debt market is more than $30 billion annually in the U.S., having grown more than 4x growth in the past decade.

What is the demand for venture debt? ›

But, as venture equity funding activity also cooled in 2023 (global start-up investment fell by almost 40% year-on-year in 2023 to the lowest levels since 2018, according to Crunchbase), demand for venture debt ramped up to fill the gap left by declining equity investment.

Is venture capital drying up? ›

The slowdown in VC deal activity, which started in Q3 2022, has continued into Q1 2024. In Q1, $36.6 billion was invested in 3,925 deals, which was at a level comparable to 2023. For all of 2023, $165.8 billion was invested across 15,580 deals.

How risky is venture debt? ›

While venture debt can be a useful financing tool, startups must understand the risks. One of the most significant risks is the potential for default. Startups that take on too much debt may be unable to make payments, which can lead to bankruptcy or a forced sale of the company. Another risk is the dilution of equity.

Where is venture capital going in 2024? ›

Sustainable startups are also gaining traction with VC investors for their innovative and potentially lucrative solutions. There is also a potential for an IPO resurgence in 2024, driven by exit activity among both newly funded late-stage and primed startups.

What is the outlook for the VC market? ›

Positive economic signals in 2023 indicate a comeback in IPOs in 2024. U.S. VC fundraising is expected to increase, making it stronger than 2023 and comparable with 2020 figures. The number of insider-led rounds as a proportion of all U.S. VC deals will be on par with or exceed the 2023 annual level.

When should I raise my venture debt? ›

When to take on venture debt. Venture debt is typically made available alongside an equity raise or within a few months of a round closing. It can be made available between rounds, but companies should have around 9-12 months of cash runway.

What is the failure rate of venture debt? ›

The default rates in venture debt lending typically range anywhere from 1% in a really good fund to 5% to 8% in a tough startup environment.

What is the prime rate for venture debt? ›

Venture debt loans last between 1 and 5 years and typically have interest rates of 10-15% (6-10% higher than the prime rate, which has been 8.5% in 2024).

How big is the US VC market? ›

The United States Venture Capital Market size in terms of assets under management value is expected to grow from USD 1.30 trillion in 2024 to USD 1.94 trillion by 2029, at a CAGR of 8.25% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

What is the outlook for venture debt? ›

Traditional Venture Debt leads the market with a projected volume of US$26.2bn in 2024. When compared globally, the United States is expected to generate the most Capital Raised ( US$31.9bn in 2024).

What are the pitfalls of venture debt? ›

Too much debt can create problems with next-round fundraising. Some new investors may balk at fresh equity being used to repay pre-existing debt. Financial covenants and tranched funding milestones also may limit a company's strategic options and spending decisions.

What is the return of venture debt? ›

The potential returns on venture debt are higher than on standard corporate bonds because of the higher interest rates and warrants. However, the default risk is also much higher because many startups fail or fail to raise another VC funding round, so the higher potential returns compensate for that risk.

What is the outlook for VC funds? ›

According to an outlook published by Wellington Management, distributions from VC funds dropped a staggering 84% from 2021 to 2023, further growing dry powder inventory and extending the allocation drought. Competition for fundraising will continue to be a trending theme among emerging companies in 2024.

What is the expected rate of return for venture capital? ›

They expect a return of between 25% and 35% per year over the lifetime of the investment. Because these investments represent such a tiny part of the institutional investors' portfolios, venture capitalists have a lot of latitude.

Does venture capital have a future? ›

Venture capital firms, old and new, will continue to play a critical role in the innovation ecosystem by funding promising business ideas. These early signs of disruptions suggest challenger VCs will be formidable competitors in the future.

What is the outlook for venture share price? ›

V03 Stock 12 Month Forecast

Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Venture in the last 3 months. The average price target is S$14.58 with a high forecast of S$16.40 and a low forecast of S$12.75. The average price target represents a 4.47% change from the last price of S$13.96.

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