Portfolio Risk and Return: Part I (2024)

Refresher Reading

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2024 Curriculum CFA Program Level I Portfolio Management and Wealth Planning

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Introduction

Construction of an optimal portfolio is an important objective for an investor. In this reading, we will explore the process of examining the risk and return characteristics of individual assets, creating all possible portfolios, selecting the most efficient portfolios, and ultimately choosing the optimal portfolio tailored to the individual in question.

During the process of constructing the optimal portfolio, several factors and investment characteristics are considered. The most important of those factors are risk and return of the individual assets under consideration. Correlations among individual assets along with risk and return are important determinants of portfolio risk. Creating a portfolio for an investor requires an understanding of the risk profile of the investor. Although we will not discuss the process of determining risk aversion for individuals or institutional investors, it is necessary to obtain such information for making an informed decision. In this reading, we will explain the broad types of investors and how their risk–return preferences can be formalized to select the optimal portfolio from among the infinite portfolios contained in the investment opportunity set.

The reading is organized as follows: Section 2 discusses the investment characteristics of assets. In particular, we show the various types of returns and risks, their computation and their applicability to the selection of appropriate assets for inclusion in a portfolio. Section 3 discusses risk aversion and how indifference curves, which incorporate individual preferences, can be constructed. The indifference curves are then applied to the selection of an optimal portfolio using two risky assets. Section 4 provides an understanding and computation of portfolio risk. The role of correlation and diversification of portfolio risk are examined in detail. Section 5 begins with the risky assets available to investors and constructs a large number of risky portfolios. It illustrates the process of narrowing the choices to an efficient set of risky portfolios before identifying the optimal risky portfolio. The risky portfolio is combined with investor risk preferences to generate the investor’s optimal portfolio. A summary concludes this reading.

Learning Outcomes

The member should be able to:

  1. calculate and interpret major return measures and describe their appropriate uses;

  2. compare the money-weighted and time-weighted rates of return and evaluate the performance of portfolios based on these measures;

  3. describe characteristics of the major asset classes that investors consider in forming portfolios;

  4. calculate and interpret the mean, variance, and covariance (or correlation) of asset returns based on historical data;

  5. explain risk aversion and its implications for portfolio selection;

  6. calculate and interpret portfolio standard deviation;

  7. describe the effect on a portfolio’s risk of investing in assets that are less than perfectly correlated;

  8. describe and interpret the minimum-variance and efficient frontiers of risky assets and the global minimum-variance portfolio;

  9. explain the selection of an optimal portfolio, given an investor’s utility (or risk aversion) and the capital allocation line.

Summary

This reading provides a description and computation of investment characteristics, such as risk and return, that investors use in evaluating assets for investment. This was followed by sections about portfolio construction, selection of an optimal risky portfolio, and an understanding of risk aversion and indifference curves. Finally, the tangency point of the indifference curves with the capital allocation line allows identification of the optimal investor portfolio. Key concepts covered in the reading include the following:

  • Holding period return is most appropriate for a single, predefined holding period.

  • Multiperiod returns can be aggregated in many ways. Each return computation has special applications for evaluating investments.

  • Risk-averse investors make investment decisions based on the risk–return trade-off, maximizing return for the same risk, and minimizing risk for the same return. They may be concerned, however, by deviations from a normal return distribution and from assumptions of financial markets’ operational efficiency.

  • Investors are risk averse, and historical data confirm that financial markets price assets for risk-averse investors.

  • The risk of a two-asset portfolio is dependent on the proportions of each asset, their standard deviations and the correlation (or covariance) between the assets’ returns. As the number of assets in a portfolio increases, the correlation among asset risks becomes a more important determinate of portfolio risk.

  • Combining assets with low correlations reduces portfolio risk.

  • The two-fund separation theorem allows us to separate decision making into two steps. In the first step, the optimal risky portfolio and the capital allocation line are identified, which are the same for all investors. In the second step, investor risk preferences enable us to find a unique optimal investor portfolio for each investor.

  • The addition of a risk-free asset creates portfolios that are dominant to portfolios of risky assets in all cases except for the optimal risky portfolio.

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Investment Funds

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International Investing

Economic Conditions

Fixed Income Investments

Equity Investments

Portfolio Risk and Return: Part I (2024)

FAQs

What is portfolio risk and return? ›

Portfolio risk is a chance that the combination of assets or units, within the investments that you own, fail to meet financial objectives. Each investment within a portfolio carries its own risk, with higher potential return typically meaning higher risk.

What is Markowitz's portfolio model? ›

In finance, the Markowitz model ─ put forward by Harry Markowitz in 1952 ─ is a portfolio optimization model; it assists in the selection of the most efficient portfolio by analyzing various possible portfolios of the given securities.

What is the formula for expected return and risk of a portfolio? ›

The expected return is calculated by multiplying the weight of each asset by its expected return. Then add the values for each investment to get the total expected return for your portfolio. Hence, the formula: Expected Portfolio Return = (Asset 1 Weight x Expected Return) + (Asset 2 Weight x Expected Return)...

What are the two components of portfolio risk? ›

Portfolio risk consists of 2 components: systemic risk and diversifiable risk. Systemic risks, also known as systematic risks, are risks affecting all assets, such as general economic conditions, and, thus, systemic risk is not reduced by diversification.

What is a good portfolio risk? ›

Most sources cite a low-risk portfolio as being made up of 15-40% equities. Medium risk ranges from 40-60%. High risk is generally from 70% upwards. In all cases, the remainder of the portfolio is made up of lower-risk asset classes such as bonds, money market funds, property funds and cash.

How do you explain risk and return? ›

Risk and return are two important parts of investing. Risk is the chance that you might lose money, while return is the money you make from your investment, and usually, investments with higher risk have the chance for higher returns.

Does modern portfolio theory still work? ›

His work on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) remains relevant today. A Review of Financial Studies paper shows how to calibrate mean-variance inputs when designing a portfolio to deliver performance in line with ex-ante expected values – a rare feat for optimised portfolios. The process is called the 'Galton' correction.

What are the two key ideas of modern portfolio theory? ›

Modern portfolio theory helps investors minimize market risk while maximizing return. It starts with two fundamental assumptions: You cannot view assets in your portfolio in isolation. Instead, you must look at them as they relate to each other, both in terms potential return and the level of risk each asset carries.

Is CAPM part of modern portfolio theory? ›

The CAPM uses the principles of modern portfolio theory to determine if a security is fairly valued. It relies on assumptions about investor behaviors, risk and return distributions, and market fundamentals that don't match reality.

How do you calculate portfolio risk? ›

To calculate the risk in the portfolio, you can use the formula: σ P = w A 2 ⋅ σ A 2 + w B 2 ⋅ σ B 2 + 2 ⋅ w A ⋅ w B ⋅ σ A ⋅ σ B ⋅ ρ A B where: - stands for the portfolio risk, - and are the weights of investment in asset A and asset B, - and are the standard deviations of returns of asset A and asset B respectively, - ...

How to calculate portfolio return? ›

The portfolio return formula calculates the overall return of a portfolio by considering the weight of each investment and their respective returns. Multiply the weight of each investment by its return and sum up these weighted returns to calculate the portfolio return.

What is the expected rate of return and risk of portfolio? ›

An expected return of a portfolio is the weighted average rate of return for all the assets in the portfolio. The weights represent the proportion invested in each asset in the entire investment portfolio and can be found by simply multiplying each asset's rate of return with its corresponding percentage.

What is the portfolio theory of risk and return? ›

The modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a practical method for selecting investments in order to maximize their overall returns within an acceptable level of risk. This mathematical framework is used to build a portfolio of investments that maximize the amount of expected return for the collective given level of risk.

How do you measure return and risk of a portfolio? ›

The portfolio risk is also measured by taking the Standard Deviation of variance of actual returns of that portfolio over time. The variability of returns is proportional to the portfolio's risk. This risk can be measured by calculating the Standard Deviation of this variability.

How to analyse portfolio risk? ›

Common portfolio risk measures include:
  1. Standard Deviation. Standard deviation is an expression of volatility that is a statistical measure of the variability of returns around the average return of an investment. ...
  2. Tracking error. ...
  3. Tracking Error Example. ...
  4. Beta. ...
  5. Drawdown. ...
  6. Diversification. ...
  7. Hedging. ...
  8. Hedging Example.
Jun 15, 2023

What is a portfolio at risk in simple terms? ›

The loan portfolio at risk is defined as the value of the outstanding balance of all loans in arrears (principal). The Loan Portfolio at Risk is generally expressed as a percentage rate of the total loan portfolio currently outstanding.

How do you explain portfolio return? ›

Portfolio return refers to the gain or loss realized by an investment portfolio containing several types of investments. Portfolios aim to deliver returns based on the stated objectives of the investment strategy, as well as the risk tolerance of the type of investors targeted by the portfolio.

What's a good portfolio return? ›

General ROI: A positive ROI is generally considered good, with a normal ROI of 5-7% often seen as a reasonable expectation. However, a strong general ROI is something greater than 10%. Return on Stocks: On average, a ROI of 7% after inflation is often considered good, based on the historical returns of the market.

References

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