How To Quickly Calculate IRR in LBO Models [Video Tutorial] (2024)

Tips for Quickly Approximating the IRR

Yes, you can quickly approximate IRR in a leveraged buyout scenario, but *only* if there’s a simple upfront investment and simple exit, and nothing else in between, such as dividends, dividend recaps, asset sales, or an IPO exit where the PE firm sells its stake gradually over time.

The internal rate of return, or IRR, represents the “effective compounded interest rate” of an investment.

In other words, if you invest $100 today and get back $150 in 5 years, what interest rate on your initial $100, compounded each year, would let you earn that $150 by the end?

To approximate the IRR, you start by calculating the money-on-money multiple and the holding period.

How To Quickly Calculate IRR in LBO Models [Video Tutorial] (1)

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If you double your money in 1 year, that’s a 100% IRR. Invest $100 and get back $200 in 1 year, and you’ve just earned 100% of what you put in.

If you double your money in 2 years, you need to earn *roughly* 50% per year to get there.

Due to compounding, it’s actually less than 50%; it’s closer to 40% if you calculate it in Excel.

So the rule of thumb is that, for “double your money” scenarios, you take 100%, divide by the # of years, and then estimate the IRR as about 75-80% of that value.

For example, if you double your money in 3 years, 100% / 3 = 33%.
75% of 33% is about 25%, which is the approximate IRR in this case.

The most important approximations are as follows:

Double Your Money in 1 Year = 100% IRR
Double Your Money in 2 Years = ~40% IRR
Double Your Money in 3 Years = ~25% IRR
Double Your Money in 4 Years = ~20% IRR
Double Your Money in 5 Years = ~15% IRR

Triple Your Money in 3 Years = ~45% IRR
Triple Your Money in 5 Years = ~25% IRR

How to Apply These Rules to Case Studies and Modeling Tests

You can use these rules of thumb to determine what your investment recommendation might say, and also to check your work before you complete a time-consuming exercise.

For example, let’s say that in one case study, you buy a $50 million EBITDA company for 7x EBITDA, using 4.5x Debt/EBITDA.

EBITDA grows by roughly 10% per year over 3 years.

Approximately $90 million of Debt amortizes over those 3 years as well.

The exit multiple is 8x EBITDA.

You can approximate the IRR in this scenario using the following logic:

$50 million EBITDA * 7x multiple = $350 million purchase price.

The equity contribution is 7.0x minus 4.5x, or 2.5x EBITDA, which is $125 million here.

If EBITDA grows by 10% per year over 3 years, it reaches approximately $70 million by Year 3.

$70 million * 8 = $560 million Exit Enterprise Value.

Since the initial leverage ratio was 4.5x Debt/EBITDA, the initial Debt was 4.5 * $50 million = $225 million.

$90 million of that Debt amortized over time, so there’s $225 – $90 = $135 million at the end.

So the Equity Proceeds Upon Exit are $560 million – $135 million = $425 million.

$425 million / $125 million = just over a 3x multiple, or 3.4x more precisely.

Since the PE firm earned back over 3x its equity in 3 years, you could approximate the IRR as “just over 45%” here.

This is an extremely high IRR, and well above the usual target of 20%, so you would lean toward an “Invest” recommendation in this case.

In our real Excel model, the IRR is only 43% because of the transaction fees, the fact that our Year 3 EBITDA estimate was off, and the fact that the Debt had PIK Interest, which increased the Debt principal over time.

Still, this is very good for a 60-second approximation.

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How To Quickly Calculate IRR in LBO Models [Video Tutorial] (2)

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Brian DeChesare is the Founder of Mergers & Inquisitions and Breaking Into Wall Street. In his spare time, he enjoys lifting weights, running, traveling, obsessively watching TV shows, and defeating Sauron.

How To Quickly Calculate IRR in LBO Models [Video Tutorial] (2024)

FAQs

How do you calculate quick IRR in LBO models? ›

So the rule of thumb is that, for “double your money” scenarios, you take 100%, divide by the # of years, and then estimate the IRR as about 75-80% of that value. For example, if you double your money in 3 years, 100% / 3 = 33%. 75% of 33% is about 25%, which is the approximate IRR in this case.

What is the easiest way to calculate IRR? ›

Divide the Future Value (FV) by the Present Value (PV) Raise to the Inverse Power of the Number of Periods (i.e. 1 ÷ n) From the Resulting Figure, Subtract by One to Compute the IRR.

What are the 4 main drivers of the change in IRR for an LBO scenario? ›

What are the 4 main drivers of the change in IRR for an LBO scenario? 1) Lower purchase 2) Exit Multiple 3) Amount of Leverage 4) EBITDA expansion.

Is the IRR difficult to calculate? ›

ROI is more common than IRR, as IRR tends to be more difficult to calculate—although software has made calculating IRR easier. While the two numbers will be roughly the same over the course of one year, they will not be the same for longer periods.

What is the internal rate of return for LBO? ›

The IRR of an LBO is the rate of return that equates the present value of these cash flows to zero. It represents the annualized return that the private equity investors earn on their equity investment.

What is the rule of 72 for paper LBO? ›

The Rule of 72 states that the time it takes to double your money is 72 divided by the MoM rate of return. There are also IRR tables you can memorize for common IRR values over a 5-year horizon, but the Rule of 72 has the advantage of being more flexible and easier to remember.

Can I calculate IRR without Excel? ›

Yes, we can. The method for calculating IRRs without using Excel involves estimating an IRR to start with, calculating the resulting net present value manually, and then refining our next estimate - depending on the result of the first one. The NPV is positive €1,000.

What is the rule of 72 for IRR? ›

The Rule of 72 is a calculation that estimates the number of years it takes to double your money at a specified rate of return. If, for example, your account earns 4 percent, divide 72 by 4 to get the number of years it will take for your money to double. In this case, 18 years.

What increases IRR in LBO? ›

Repaying Debt will almost always produce a higher IRR because by repaying Debt, the company reduces its Interest Expense in the holding period, resulting in higher FCF and higher Cash generation by the end.

What is the internal rate of return for dummies? ›

The internal rate of return is the interest rate (also known as the discount rate) that will bring a series of cash flows (positive and negative) to a net present value of zero or to the current value of cash invested. Investors and firms use IRR to evaluate whether an investment in a project can be justified.

What variables impact an LBO the most? ›

The entry and exit multiples would have the most significant impact on the returns in an LBO. The ideal scenario for a financial sponsor is to purchase the target at a lower multiple and then exit at a higher multiple, as this results in the most profitable returns.

How to calculate IRR by hand formula? ›

Here are the steps to take in calculating IRR by hand:
  1. Select two estimated discount rates. Before you begin calculating, select two discount rates that you'll use. ...
  2. Calculate the net present values. Using the two values you selected in step one, calculate the net present values based on each estimation. ...
  3. Calculate the IRR.
Mar 10, 2023

What is IRR in layman's terms? ›

The internal rate of return (IRR) is the annual rate of growth that an investment is expected to generate. IRR is calculated using the same concept as net present value (NPV), except it sets the NPV equal to zero.

How do you calculate quick ROI? ›

Return on investment (ROI) is calculated by dividing the profit earned on an investment by the cost of that investment. For instance, an investment with a profit of $100 and a cost of $100 would have an ROI of 1, or 100% when expressed as a percentage.

How to calculate IRR of a private equity fund? ›

The IRR is calculated by solving the equation that sets the present value of the cash flows equal to zero. The general formula for finding the IRR is: 0 = CF0 + CF1/(1+IRR) + CF2/(1+IRR)2 + CF3/(1+IRR)3 ... CFn/(1+IRR)n.

What is the formula for incremental IRR? ›

To calculate the incremental IRR, you must subtract the cash flows of the lower-investment project from the cash flows of the higher-investment project to get the incremental cash flows. Then, find the discount rate that makes the NPV of the incremental cash flows equal to zero, which is your incremental IRR.

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