Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2024)

Data Source: from January 1985 to April 2024 (~39 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024
Live Update: May 24 2024, 03:00PM Eastern TimeCurrency: USD

PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)

0.53%

1 Day

May 24 2024, 03:00PM Eastern Time

4.34%

Current Month

May 2024

The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 4 ETFs.

It's exposed for 80% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio obtained a 7.92% compound annual return, with a 12.45% standard deviation.

Table of contents

Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (1)

The first official book of Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2)

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)
Investment Themes (Orig.Currency)ETF
Ticker
ETF
Currency
ETF Name
50.00Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)

VTI

USDVanguard Total Stock Market
30.00Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap (USD)

VEU

USDVanguard FTSE All-World ex-US
10.00Bond, U.S., All-Term (USD)

TIP

USDiShares TIPS Bond
10.00Bond, U.S., All-Term (USD)

BND

USDVanguard Total Bond Market

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Apr 30, 2024

The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.

May 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.

BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO

Consolidated returns as of 30 April 2024

Live Update: May 24 2024, 03:00PM Eastern Time

Swipe left to see all data

Chg (%)Return (%)Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2024
1 DayTime ET(*)May 20241M6M1Y5Y10Y30YMAX
(~39Y)
Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio0.534.34-3.3716.0713.167.957.507.929.57
US Inflation Adjusted return-3.6713.969.483.624.525.246.58
Components

VTI

USDVanguard Total Stock Market0.6103:00PM, May 24 20245.22-4.3420.7321.9412.2711.7210.2911.15

VEU

USDVanguard FTSE All-World ex-US0.6402:59PM, May 24 20244.68-2.5116.068.765.234.184.817.75

TIP

USDiShares TIPS Bond0.1503:00PM, May 24 20241.56-1.693.42-2.111.571.585.166.63

BND

USDVanguard Total Bond Market0.1203:00PM, May 24 20241.73-2.414.92-1.40-0.161.164.255.63
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1985
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Apr 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.36% , 5Y: 4.18% , 10Y: 2.85% , 30Y: 2.55%

Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2023, the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio granted a 2.63% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2024

An investment of 1$, since May 1994, now would be worth 9.85$, with a total return of 884.99% (7.92% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.63$, with a net total return of 362.92% (5.24% annualized).

An investment of 1$, since January 1985, now would be worth 36.43$, with a total return of 3542.85% (9.57% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 12.27$, with a net total return of 1127.05% (6.58% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024

Metrics of Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio, updated as of 30 April 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.

BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO

Advanced Metrics

Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2024 (~39 years)

Swipe left to see all data

Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024
1M3M6M1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
(~39Y)
Investment Return (%)-3.372.5016.0713.162.737.957.507.717.929.57
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details -3.671.3513.969.48-2.623.624.524.985.246.58
US Inflation (%)0.311.141.853.365.504.182.852.602.552.81
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.

DRAWDOWN

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)-8.64-23.20-23.20-23.20-44.08-44.08-44.08
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5262626424242
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082022 012022 012022 012007 112007 112007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)3999161616
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022009 022009 02
Bottom to End (# months)2171717262626
End (yyyy mm)2023 122024 022024 022024 022011 042011 042011 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-32.45-32.45
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5656
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082022 012022 012022 012007 112000 042000 04
Start to Bottom (# months)3999163030
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022002 092002 09
Bottom to End (# months)2171717262626
End (yyyy mm)2023 122024 022024 022024 022011 042004 112004 11
Longest negative period (# months) details 630323259118118
Period Start (yyyy mm)2023 052021 052021 032021 032004 051999 051999 05
Period End (yyyy mm)2023 102023 102023 102023 102009 032009 022009 02
Annualized Return (%)-4.94-2.68-0.41-0.41-0.47-0.23-0.23
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)-9.50-27.97-27.97-27.97-45.00-45.00-45.00
Start to Recovery (# months) details 532*32*32*636363
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082021 092021 092021 092007 112007 112007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)3131313161616
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022009 022009 02
Bottom to End (# months)2191919474747
End (yyyy mm)2023 12---2013 012013 012013 01
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-36.11-36.11
Start to Recovery (# months) details 7070
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082021 092021 092021 092007 112000 042000 04
Start to Bottom (# months)3131313163030
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022002 092002 09
Bottom to End (# months)2191919474040
End (yyyy mm)2023 12---2013 012006 012006 01
Longest negative period (# months) details 636*465868140140
Period Start (yyyy mm)2023 052021 052020 012017 122006 021997 071997 07
Period End (yyyy mm)2023 102024 042023 102022 092011 092009 022009 02
Annualized Return (%)-7.70-2.62-0.54-0.01-0.38-0.33-0.33
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress

RISK INDICATORS

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Standard Deviation (%)12.7314.3914.9612.3412.7512.4512.42
Sharpe Ratio0.620.010.400.510.500.450.45
Sortino Ratio0.900.010.540.680.650.590.59
Ulcer Index3.2110.028.346.419.8910.709.65
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation1.030.190.530.610.610.640.77
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown1.520.120.340.320.180.180.22
% Positive Months details 58%58%61%65%64%63%65%
Positive Months7213779154228308
Negative Months515234186132164

LONG TERM RETURNS

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized7.5012.2812.2814.19
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized5.120.520.52
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized4.5210.3410.3410.71
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized3.30-2.02-2.02

ROLLING PERIODS

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized48.6022.2818.5412.288.597.92
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.94-11.70-2.510.524.72
% Positive Periods77%84%97%100%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized76.0225.8416.018.815.417.01
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized----2.165.49
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized45.4719.4216.1510.346.205.24
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.94-13.82-5.02-2.022.58
% Positive Periods72%78%83%95%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized76.0225.8416.018.815.417.01
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized----2.165.49
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1985 - Apr 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized49.1125.0022.5814.1911.8010.18
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.94-11.70-2.510.524.727.37
% Positive Periods81%88%98%100%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized76.0225.8416.018.815.415.99
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized----2.164.65
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized46.8021.3118.2510.718.527.26
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.94-13.82-5.02-2.022.584.72
% Positive Periods74%83%87%97%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized76.0225.8416.018.815.415.99
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized----2.164.65
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Terms and Definitions

  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 30 April 2024

Swipe left to see all data

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO

Drawdown periods

Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted

Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)

Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2024 (~39 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data

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Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2024)

FAQs

Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns? ›

It is suitable for investors with a high risk tolerance who are seeking substantial returns and can withstand large drawdowns. It's exposed for 80% on the Stock Market. In the last 30 Years, the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio obtained a 8.05% compound annual return, with a 12.46% standard deviation.

How many ETFs should I have in my portfolio? ›

"You can get broad-based diversification with one ETF, commonly referred to as diversified ETFs, or you can build a portfolio of five to 10 ETFs that would offer good diversification," he says. The choice you make on the above depends on your investment goals and risk appetite, like any investment.

What is the 4 fund portfolio allocation by age? ›

The common rule of asset allocation by age is that you should hold a percentage of stocks that is equal to 100 minus your age. So if you're 40, you should hold 60% of your portfolio in stocks. Since life expectancy is growing, changing that rule to 110 minus your age or 120 minus your age may be more appropriate.

What is the 4 fund investment strategy? ›

The Four Fund Combo is built on four index funds (or exchange-traded funds) that include the most basic U.S. equity asset classes: large-cap blend stocks (the S&P 500 SPX, +0.27%, in other words), large-cap value stocks, small-cap blend stocks, and small-cap value stocks.

How do I diversify my Vanguard portfolio? ›

Fixed income

Over the long term, high-quality bond funds have tended to offer better diversification against stock volatility and higher yield potential than cash. While replacing bonds with cash may work in the short term, investors need to consider more than just yield if they want to design an all-weather portfolio.

Is 5 ETFs too much? ›

Experts agree that for most personal investors, a portfolio comprising 5 to 10 ETFs is perfect in terms of diversification. But the number of ETFs is not what you should be looking at.

Is 10 ETFs too many? ›

Generally speaking, fewer than 10 ETFs are likely enough to diversify your portfolio, but this will vary depending on your financial goals, ranging from retirement savings to income generation.

What is the 120 age rule? ›

The 120-age investment rule states that a healthy investing approach means subtracting your age from 120 and using the result as the percentage of your investment dollars in stocks and other equity investments.

What should a 60 year old portfolio allocation be? ›

At age 60–69, consider a moderate portfolio (60% stock, 35% bonds, 5% cash/cash investments); 70–79, moderately conservative (40% stock, 50% bonds, 10% cash/cash investments); 80 and above, conservative (20% stock, 50% bonds, 30% cash/cash investments).

What is the best portfolio mix for a 55 year old? ›

As you reach your 50s, consider allocating 60% of your portfolio to stocks and 40% to bonds. Adjust those numbers according to your risk tolerance. If risk makes you nervous, decrease the stock percentage and increase the bond percentage.

What is a lazy portfolio? ›

A Lazy Portfolio is a collection of investments that requires very little maintenance. It's the typical passive investing strategy, for long-term investors, with time horizons of more than 10 years. Choose your investment style (Classic or Alternative?), pick your Lazy Portfolios and implement them with ETFs.

What is the Boglehead 4 fund portfolio? ›

The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio can be implemented with 4 ETFs. This portfolio has a very high risk, meaning it can experience significant fluctuations in value. It is suitable for investors with a high risk tolerance who are seeking substantial returns and can withstand large drawdowns.

What are the 4 P's of fund selection? ›

These are People, Philosophy, Process, and Performance. When evaluating a wealth manager, these are the key areas to think about. The 4P's can be dissected further, but for the purpose of this introduction, we'll focus on these high-level categories.

What is the best ETF portfolio? ›

The Best Large-Cap U.S. Stock ETFs
Fund NameTickerAnnualized 5-Year Total Return %
Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth ETFVONG16.28
Vanguard S&P 500 ETFVOO12.47
Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETFVOOG13.20
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETFVTI11.69
15 more rows
Dec 20, 2023

How many Vanguard ETFs should I own? ›

Build a fully diversified portfolio with just 4 ETFs

This level of diversification can help reduce your overall investment risk while making it easier to manage your portfolio.

How should I diversify my ETF portfolio? ›

The ideal scenario is to have a mix of investments across different asset classes such as stocks, bonds and commodities that each display different risk and return characteristics with little correlation to each other.

What is the 70 30 ETF strategy? ›

This investment strategy seeks total return through exposure to a diversified portfolio of primarily equity, and to a lesser extent, fixed income asset classes with a target allocation of 70% equities and 30% fixed income. Target allocations can vary +/-5%.

How many S&P 500 ETFs should I buy? ›

SPY, VOO and IVV are among the most popular S&P 500 ETFs. These three S&P 500 ETFs are quite similar, but may sometimes diverge in terms of costs or daily returns. Investors generally only need one S&P 500 ETF.

What is the 3% limit on ETFs? ›

Under the Investment Company Act, private investment funds (e.g. hedge funds) are generally prohibited from acquiring more than 3% of an ETF's shares (the 3% Limit).

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